Monday, June 18, 2018

What Role for the G-20?


The Group of 20 has held two summit meetings, including the recent one in London. It is now an established forum, a recognition, belated in my view, that the world has changed and that the old institutions have not kept pace with rapidly evolving needs.

Better late than never, of course. Yet already there are questions about the substance and functioning of this new body – questions that need to be answered without delay.

The first is whether the decisions adopted in London can resolve the global financial and economic crisis, setting the world economy on track to sustainable growth.

A definitive answer will emerge only with time, but my initial impression is that the London decisions may be a tentative first step. But clearer reference points are needed on structuring the system of global economic governance and on the group’s tasks. Crisis prevention should not be the G-20’s main task. What’s needed is a transition to a new model, integrating social, environmental and economic factors.

The second question concerns the G-20’s place within the system of global institutions. What is this group: a “global politburo,” a “club of the powerful,” a prototype for a world government? How will it interact with the United Nations?

I am convinced that no group of countries, even if they account for 90 percent of the world economy, could supersede or substitute for the United Nations. But clearly, the G-20 could claim collective leadership in world affairs if it acts with due respect for the opinions of non-members. The presence in the G-20 of countries representing different geographic regions, different levels of development and different cultures is a hopeful sign.

And yet this group is an improvised affair, put together under duress in the extreme conditions of an unexpected global upheaval. It does not include certain countries that are influential in regional and sometimes broader terms, like Egypt, Nigeria or Iran. And it has not been clear about its methods.

To avoid mistakes the G-20 must be transparent and work closely with the U.N. At least once a year, its summit meetings should be held at U.N. headquarters. It should submit a report for substantial discussion to the General Assembly.

Last but not least is the question of the scope of its work. Should the G-20 be confined to the global economy, or will it address political problems? The answer is not self-evident.

Those who object to a political role would obviously argue that the world community has entrusted the U.N. Security Council with primary responsibility for maintaining international peace and security. Therefore, our main concern should be to strengthen that body’s role. It is indeed true that all attempts to ignore or bypass the Security Council, whether in the Middle East or elsewhere, have always ended badly.

It is also true, however, that the Security Council’s main role is to respond promptly to immediate crisis. We know from experience that it is not as well-equipped to address long-term, conceptual issues. Furthermore, the long delay in reforming the Council has left it less representative than the G-20, which is particularly well-suited to consider the global challenges of security, poverty and the environment.

I believe that the G-20 could find a key place in the architecture of world politics. If it helps to reverse the economic crisis, it will earn the credibility to lead.

One of the problems ripe for debate is the militarization of world politics and economics. Militarization deflects resources from the real economy, stimulates conflicts and creates an illusion that military rather than political solutions are viable. By initiating a serious discussion within the G-20, world leaders can build momentum for the work of those U.N. organizations that are responsible for progress in this area – the Security Council and the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva.

Following the London summit meeting, Prime Minister Gordon Brown of Britain called the gathering a step toward a “new progressive era of international cooperation.” Though there is still a way to go before that becomes a reality, it is the direction in which we must move.

Mikhail Gorbachev was the last leader of the Soviet Union and is president of the International Foundation for Socio-Economic and Political Studies in Moscow.

source: The New York Times

Pakistan Rebuffs Taliban Advance


Pakistan showed signs of heeding U.S. calls to robustly battle the Taliban as government troops, backed by helicopter gunships, clashed with militants near the Swat Valley and an official who brokered a peace deal with the insurgents was removed.

The Obama administration has been talking with Pakistan’s leadership in recent days to “encourage” its military not to cede more ground to the Taliban, according to senior U.S. officials. To support the effort and bolster stability in Pakistan, the State Department is seeking to accelerate delivery of $1 billion in aid, senior U.S. officials said.

“Pakistan is in an emergency situation,” Richard Holbrooke, the U.S. special representative for Pakistan and Afghanistan, said in an interview Sunday. “An argument could be made for the acceleration of the aid.”

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Associated Press

Pakistani paramilitary maintain a position on a high post in the troubled area of Pakistan’s Lower Dir district Sunday. Pakistan launched an operation against militants in a district covered by a government-backed peace deal.

Islamabad’s commitment to the truce in Swat was tested again Sunday when militants ambushed a convoy of paramilitary police in Lower Dir district, west of the Swat Valley.

The army responded by shelling militant positions and strafing them from helicopters, said a senior military officer. One policeman and several militants were killed, Pakistan’s military said.

The paramilitary unit, the Frontier Corps, wrested at least one of the district’s towns from Taliban control by late Sunday, Pakistan’s military said. How much of the district remained under Taliban control was unclear.

The Swat Valley has become a major militant base since the government struck a peace accord with the Taliban in mid-February. Militants have since advanced to surrounding districts.

The government looked likely to abandon what has largely been its one-sided truce unless the Taliban completely pulled back to the valley, Pakistani officials and Western diplomats said.

President Asif Ali Zardari’s spokesman insisted Sunday the accord in Swat remained “intact,” suggesting the military operation would be limited to Lower Dir.

The accord saw the army pull back and the Taliban impose a harsh brand of Islamic law on Swat. The militants have also kept their weapons, which a Taliban spokesman said Sunday they needed to enforce the rulings of Islamic courts being set up under the peace deal. Taliban “do not lay down weapons,” he said.

Pakistan’s military moved in to Lower Dir after the Taliban, who had come from Swat, reportedly began kidnapping prominent residents for ransom, a Pakistani official said. An indefinite curfew was imposed on the district, where 12 children were killed Saturday while playing with a bomb.

The violence in Dir came after hundreds of Taliban fighters from Swat pulled out of the Buner district, south of the valley, which they seized last week. The government and Taliban officials said “local” Taliban remained in Buner — 70 miles from Islamabad — dug in at mountain camps and manning checkpoints in remote parts of the district. The Taliban have also sent scores of young men from Buner to training camps in Swat.

The U.S. has pressed Pakistan to move against the militants, fearing they will build on gains in Swat to push further into the heavily populated heartland.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen has talked with Pakistan’s army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, in recent days, according to senior U.S. officials. Mr. Holbrooke is having regular discussions with Mr. Zardari, opposition leader Nawaz Sharif and Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi. President Barack Obama has been leading the U.S. response, officials said. Mr. Zardari is due in Washington on May 6-7 for a meeting with Mr. Obama and Afghan President Hamid Karzai to be focused largely on better coordinating the fight against the Taliban. The meeting will also now focus on finding ways to quickly strengthen Islamabad’s finances and fighting capabilities.

Washington pledged $1 billion for Islamabad this month as part of a wider five-year $7.5 billion package, and that first installment can be distributed more quickly if Congress decides to do so.

In another indication Islamabad may be having second thoughts about the truce, the top administrator for Swat and surrounding areas, Syed Mohammed Javed, was replaced over the weekend for allegedly maintaining close contact with wanted Taliban commanders — although his local ties got him the job.Mr. Javed earlier this month met Faqir Mohammed, a Taliban commander whose forces have been battling Pakistani soldiers in the nearby Bajaur region. Intelligence officials in Islamabad say he has also met with al Qaeda’s deputy leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri.Mr. Javed said he was being moved from Malakand as part of a “routine” transfer and denied having any contact with Mr. Zawahiri or other wanted militants. He said he hadn’t been told his new assignment.

Mr. Javed was named last year the commissioner of Malakand — a region that includes Swat, Buner and Dir — because of his close relationship with Sufi Mohammed, a radical cleric whose son-in-law leads the Taliban faction in Swat, say analysts.

His replacement, Fazal Karim Khattack, now must contend with the Taliban and a peace deal that has begun to look increasingly one-sided.

Corrections & Amplifications
The Lower Dir district of Pakistan is west of the Swat Valley. A previous version of this story incorrectly said it was north of Swat.

source: The Wall Street Journal

Europe Urges Citizens to Avoid U.S. and Mexico Travel


Hoping to head off a global pandemic of swine flu that has surfaced in North America, the European Union’s health commissioner on Monday urged Europeans to avoid traveling to the United States or Mexico if doing so was not essential.

The warning came as health officials in Spain confirmed early Monday that a man hospitalized in eastern Spain had tested positive for swine flu, becoming what appeared to be Europe’s first case of the disease. Health authorities were also testing 17 other suspected cases across Spain, a major hub for travel between Mexico and Europe.

Britain and other European Union nations had already issued travel advisories for those traveling to Mexico, but the European Union’s health commissioner went a step further on Monday in urging Europeans to avoid nonessential trips. Europeans, she told reporters in Luxembourg, “should avoid traveling to Mexico or the United States of America unless it is very urgent for them.”

The fear that outbreaks of the flu might severely curtail travel was enough to unnerve markets in Europe and Asia, sending stocks tumbling, particularly shares of airlines and other companies in the travel industry.

But Dr. Richard Besser, acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, Ga., called the European Union’s advisory against traveling to the United States unwarranted, saying that only 20 cases had been diagnosed here, just one of which required hospitalization.

“We are looking very hard for cases of swine flu,” he told CNN early Monday. “I expect we’re going to find some, and we’ll find some of increasing severity and more of the mild cases. At this point I would not put a travel restriction or recommendation against coming to the United States.”

The European Union’s travel advisory followed an advisory by Hong Kong on Sunday that called for residents of that territory to avoid all travel to Mexico and to try to avoid travel to cities with confirmed cases in the United States.

Other nations also imposed travel bans or made plans to quarantine air travelers over the weekend as additional confirmed cases appeared in Mexico and Canada, and at least 10 suspected cases appeared in New Zealand. Eight of the 20 confirmed cases in the United States were diagnosed in New York City, where Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg was expected to hold a news conference early Monday afternoon.

Top global flu experts struggled to predict how dangerous the new A (H1N1) swine flu strain would be as it became clear that they had too little information about Mexico’s outbreak – in particular how many cases had occurred in what is thought to be a month before the outbreak was detected, and whether the virus was mutating to be more lethal, or less.

“We’re in a period in which the picture is evolving,” said Dr. Keiji Fukuda, deputy director general of the World Health Organization. “We need to know the extent to which it causes mild and serious infections.”

Without that knowledge – which is unlikely to emerge soon because only two laboratories, in Atlanta and Winnipeg, Canada, can confirm a case – his agency’s panel of experts was unwilling to raise the global pandemic alert level, even though it officially saw the outbreak as a public health emergency and opened its emergency response center.

President Obama, said on Monday that the outbreak was “a cause for concern” but not alarm. Speaking at the National Academy of Sciences in Washington, he promised that “Department of Health and Human Services as well as the Centers for Disease Control will be offering regular updates to the American people so that they know what steps are being taken and what steps they may need to take.”

Concerns about the potential economic impact of the outbreak sent stocks tumbling across the globe, hitting travel-related companies particularly hard. Most Asian and European markets were down by the end of trading Monday, with tourism and airline industry stocks leading the decline. Shares of United Airlines, Delta Airlines, and other major carriers plunged as well.

In Spain, the Ibex 35, a benchmark stock index, was off 2.5 percent. A health official there said that the man who tested positive had been hospitalized in Almansa, in eastern Spain, but was not seriously ill. The other suspected cases were scattered around the country, with 10 in the northeastern region of Catalonia and cases in Madrid, Valencia and the Basque regions.

Normally, there are about two dozen flights between Spain and Mexico each day.

Other governments tried to contain the infection amid reports of potential new cases, including in New Zealand. Health officials there said that nine students and their teacher had tested positive for influenza A after returning to Auckland from a trip to Mexico. The W.H.O. was conducting tests to determine if the virus was in fact swine flu. In the meantime, airport workers in Auckland were stepping up their screening of people traveling from North America.

On Sunday, at a news conference in Washington, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano called the United States’ emergency declaration “standard operating procedure,” and said she would rather call it a “declaration of emergency preparedness.”

“It’s like declaring one for a hurricane,” she said. “It means we can release funds and take other measures. The hurricane may not actually hit.”

American investigators said they expected more cases here, but noted that virtually all so far had been mild and urged Americans not to panic.

The speed and the scope of the world’s response showed the value of preparations made because of the avian flu and SARS scares, public health experts said.

The emergency declaration in the United States lets the government free more money for antiviral drugs and give some previously unapproved tests and drugs to children. One-quarter of the national stockpile of 50 million courses of antiflu drugs will be released.

Border patrols and airport security officers are to begin asking travelers if they have had the flu or a fever; those who appear ill will be stopped, taken aside and given masks while they arrange for medical care.

“This is moving fast and we expect to see more cases,” Dr. Besser said at the news conference with Ms. Napolitano on Sunday. “But we view this as a marathon.”

He advised Americans to wash their hands frequently, to cover coughs and sneezes and to stay home if they felt ill; but he stopped short of advice now given in Mexico to wear masks and not kiss or touch anyone. He praised decisions to close individual schools in New York and Texas but did not call for more widespread closings.

Besides the eight New York cases, officials said they had confirmed seven in California, two in Kansas, two in Texas and one in Ohio. The virus looked identical to the one in Mexico believed to have killed 103 people – including 22 people whose deaths were confirmed to be from swine flu – and sickened about 1,600. As of Sunday night, there were no swine flu deaths in the United States, and one hospitalization.

Dr. Fukuda of the W.H.O. said his agency would decide Tuesday whether to raise the pandemic alert level to 4. Such a move would prompt more travel bans, and the agency has been reluctant historically to take actions that hurt member nations.

Canada confirmed six cases, at opposite ends of the country: four in Nova Scotia and two in British Columbia. Canadian health officials said the victims had only mild symptoms and had either recently traveled to Mexico or been in contact with someone who had.

Other governments issued advisories urging citizens not to visit Mexico. China, Japan, Hong Kong and others set up quarantines for anyone possibly infected. Russia and other countries banned pork imports from Mexico, though people cannot get the flu from eating pork.

In the United States, the C.D.C. confirmed that eight students at St. Francis Preparatory School in Fresh Meadows, Queens, had been infected with the new swine flu. At a news conference on Sunday, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg said that all those cases had been mild and that city hospitals had not seen a surge in severe lung infections.

On the streets of New York, people seemed relatively unconcerned, in sharp contrast to Mexico City, where soldiers handed out masks.

Hong Kong, shaped by lasting scars as an epicenter of the SARS outbreak, announced very tough measures. Officials there urged travelers to avoid Mexico and ordered the immediate detention of anyone arriving with a fever higher than 100.4 degrees Fahrenheit after traveling through any city with a confirmed case, which would include New York.

Everyone stopped will be sent to a hospital for a flu test and held until it is negative. Since Hong Kong has Asia’s busiest airport hub, the policy could severely disrupt international travel.

The central question is how many mild cases Mexico has had, Dr. Martin S. Cetron, director of global migration and quarantine for the Centers for Disease Control, said in an interview.

“We may just be looking at the tip of the iceberg, which would give you a skewed initial estimate of the case fatality rate,” he said, meaning that there might have been tens of thousands of mild infections around the 1,300 cases of serious disease and 80 or more deaths. If that is true, as the flu spreads, it would not be surprising if most cases were mild.

Even in 1918, according to the C.D.C., the virus infected at least 500 million of the world’s 1.5 billion people to kill 50 million. Many would have been saved if antiflu drugs, antibiotics and mechanical ventilators had existed.

Another hypothesis, Dr. Cetron said, is that some other factor in Mexico increased lethality, like co-infection with another microbe or an unwittingly dangerous treatment.

Flu experts would also like to know whether current flu shots give any protection because it will be months before a new vaccine can be made.

There is an H1N1 human strain in this year’s shot, and all H1N1 flus are descendants of the 1918 pandemic strain. But flus pick up many mutations, and there will be no proof of protection until the C.D.C. can test stored blood serum containing flu shot antibodies against the new virus. Those tests are under way, said an expert who sent the C.D.C. his blood samples.

Reporting was contributed by Victoria Burnett in Madrid, Sheryl Gay Stolberg from Washington, Jack Healy from New York, Keith Bradsher from Hong Kong and Ian Austen from Ottawa.

source: The New York Times

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